The 80% Decision: Leading with Confidence During Crisis
In emergency management and business continuity operations, decisions often need to be made before all the facts are in. For Incident Commanders, waiting for 100% of the information can mean losing valuable time—and in some cases, losing control of the incident. That’s where the concept of the 80% decision comes in.
The 80% rule isn’t about guessing or rushing. It’s about leveraging experience, training, and available information to make a timely, informed, and actionable decision when it matters most. In the fast-paced, high-pressure environment of incident response, hesitation can lead to escalation. Making an 80% decision means having enough situational awareness to act decisively, knowing that waiting for absolute certainty can cost critical time and resources.
Why It Matters
As an Incident Commander, your role is to lead—especially when the path forward isn’t entirely clear. This doesn’t mean being reckless or ignoring protocol. Rather, it means recognizing when you have sufficient information to make a sound decision and when the risks of delay outweigh the risks of moving forward.
In emergencies, time is a factor. Fires spread. Floodwaters rise. Systems fail. Stakeholders expect answers, and your team looks to you for direction. By making an 80% decision, you maintain momentum, assert control, and set the tone for a proactive response.
When to Use the 80% Rule
Initial Response Phase: During the first operational period of an incident, information may be incomplete. Deciding on a staging location, command post, or immediate public safety message can’t always wait for a full intel brief.
Resource Deployment: You may not have confirmation that a second wave of need is coming, but based on current trends, it may be necessary to mobilize mutual aid early.
Public Communication: Releasing early, accurate, and limited information can reassure the public and control the narrative, even as the full picture is still developing.
Real-World Application
Consider the Port of Baltimore bridge collapse. In the early moments of the incident, the Unified Command didn’t have every piece of information. However, key decisions—establishing a safety perimeter, initiating search and rescue, coordinating with state and federal partners—had to be made immediately. These decisions were based on partial information, historical precedent, and expertise, not complete data sets. And they made a difference.
During the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, many hospitals faced overwhelming patient surges with limited testing and evolving public health guidance. Hospital incident commanders had to quickly reallocate staff, convert space for surge capacity, and implement crisis standards of care—all based on projections and limited data. These timely decisions enabled continuity of care and saved lives.
Another example is the response to Hurricane Ian in Florida. Local emergency managers had to decide when to issue evacuation orders, open shelters, and reposition resources ahead of landfall. Meteorological models provided guidance, but not certainty. Acting at the 80% confidence level helped ensure that communities were better prepared and lives were protected, despite the evolving storm track.
Training for Confidence
At Celtic Edge, we integrate the 80% decision-making concept into our exercise planning and execution. Through HSEEP-based simulations, we place Incident Commanders in fast-moving scenarios where they must assess risk, trust their team, and make decisions under pressure. We help leaders balance decisiveness with accountability—because being effective in a crisis isn’t about being perfect, it’s about being prepared.
Final Thought
Making 80% decisions isn’t about compromising standards—it’s about leading with confidence in the face of uncertainty. When lives, infrastructure, or critical operations are on the line, your ability to act swiftly and wisely can shape the outcome. Trust your training, trust your team, and make the call.
If you're looking to build a more decisive, resilient incident leadership team, Celtic Edge is ready to help—from tailored exercises to actionable improvement planning.
